H1B VISA New Rule | Is IT Sector going to Crash?

H1-B visa fee increased from $1,500 to $100,000. That's a mind-blowing 66X increase! When this news broke, everyone assumed Indian IT firms would now have to spend 66x more to run their US operations through their Indian workforce. The panic was instant and brutal. Media channels went crazy. Here's why:

Indian IT companies account for 20% of ALL H1-B visas issued by the US. That's 24,766 visas out of 130,000 total. With the new $100,000 fee, quick math suggested a potential $2.5 bn annual cost! No wonder media channels went crazy over the weekend. The headlines wrote themselves: "Indian IT Sector Destroyed," "Massive Crisis for TCS, Infosys, Wipro." But here's where it gets interesting,

Let's look at the actual facts and ignore media narratives. After the initial panic, US Spokesperson clarified the critical details that changed everything: 

•  It's a ONE-TIME fee, not annual (despite initial confusion) 
• Effective from September 21, 2025 
• Only applies to new visa applications 
• Does NOT apply to existing visa holders 
• Does NOT apply to renewals 
• Does NOT apply to the 2025 lottery (already completed) 
• Will impact the February 2026 lottery onwards

Here's what most people don't know - Indian IT firms have already been reducing H1-B dependence for years: 

•  56% decline in H1-B usage 
•  Companies have been aggressively building local centers in US 
•  Massively increased hiring of American graduates. 

During Y2K, dot com bubble burst, IT Index crashed more than 88% during year 2000 - 2002, but eventually increased more than 460% in next three years.

During 2008 global financial crisis, when 100 years old companies like Lehman collapsed, IT Index crashed more than 65% but in next 6 years it gained 600%

During covid crash, again IT index corrected more than 33% then in next one year it gained more than 230% and this year IT Index has seen around 30% correction, guess where it can move now?

Indian IT companies have been preparing for THIS EXACT SCENARIO for almost a decade! They didn't just wake up to this risk yesterday. If you study their annual reports, you will know that 

•  TCS started hiring from US universities. 
• Infosys opened massive training centers in Indiana and Rhode Island 
• Wipro expanded operations in Atlanta and Michigan 
• Both TCS and Wipro established Mexico centers for nearshore delivery 
• Latin America operations expanded significantly 
• Canada has become a major hub for Indian IT

The Indian IT is often underestimated. These companies have survived: 

• Y2K boom and bust 
• 2008 financial crisis 
• COVID-19 pandemic 
• Multiple visa scares under different US administrations 

Each crisis made them stronger, more diversified, and less dependent on any single factor. They've shown remarkable adaptability every single time. If Trump wanted to create panic, he succeeded brilliantly. But if you look beyond the headlines, beyond the WhatsApp forwards, beyond the media hysteria - you might see a different story.

Companies like TCS and Infosys didn't become $100+ billion giants by being fragile. They became giants by adapting to every challenge thrown at them. When everyone is fearful, that's often when opportunities emerge.